Opinion: Separation uncertainty is costing Alberta businesses

By Shauna Feth 
Published: Edmonton Journal

Separation uncertainty has an economic cost, and it arrives long before any vote takes place. It shows up in the decisions businesses make every day.

Across Alberta, businesses are already adjusting to a more unsettled environment. Investment timelines are being reconsidered, hiring plans revised, and long-term growth strategies tested against a level of risk that did not exist even a year ago. Recent research from 681 Alberta businesses by the Alberta Chambers of Commerce confirms this.

More than four in 10 now report that political uncertainty is directly impacting their operations, double the share reported a year earlier. Among those affected, two thirds express more concern about a recession. Seven in 10 believe uncertainty is impacting the provincial economy, up significantly since January; reported impacts include delayed or cancelled projects (85 per cent), relocation or expansion of businesses outside Alberta (71 per cent), and difficulty attracting and retaining talent (60 per cent).

These are not abstract concerns. The number of businesses expressing a positive outlook about the future of the province has declined nearly 10 points since January. That optimism matters. It is the foundation on which businesses invest, expand, and hire.

What Alberta businesses are reporting is consistent with how markets behave under prolonged uncertainty. Evidence from Quebec’s experience in the lead-up to the 1995 referendum shows that even before any constitutional change occurs, uncertainty alone can shift economic outcomes. Investment weakened relative to other provinces, companies relocated to reduce exposure to political risk, and talent went with them.

The lesson is not that Alberta is Quebec, or that the circumstances are identical. Uncertainty, once introduced, has predictable economic consequences. Capital responds to clarity. It withdraws in its absence. Importantly, the drivers of this uncertainty are not immovable. Much of this pressure is rooted in policy friction and unresolved federal-provincial dynamics, which require focused, co-ordinated action.

Businesses are clear about where that work must continue and accelerate. Top priorities include removing interprovincial trade barriers, building and expanding pipelines to non-U.S. markets, and strengthening domestic supply chains. These are practical levers governments can continue advancing without waiting for broader political debates to play out.

At the same time, it is important to acknowledge what is driving frustration in today’s discussion. Federal policy impacts on Alberta were identified as the top issue facing the province again in this year’s research. Decisions over the past decade have constrained competitiveness and growth in key sectors, resulting in significant lost economic opportunity.

There are signs of constructive progress. Recent federal-provincial agreements signal a willingness to move from broad commitments toward more co-ordinated action. But businesses are not responding to announcements alone. They are watching for implementation, whether projects move forward and approvals are predictable, and whether governments are willing to adjust when past assumptions no longer align with practical economic realities. Those outcomes will determine where the next wave of investment lands. The longer uncertainty persists, the more opportunity Alberta leaves on the table.

Alberta remains one of the country’s key engines of growth, with industries that depend on strong integration with national and international markets. Stability in Alberta supports jobs, investment, and supply chains across the country.

Alberta’s business community is not dismissing the concerns that have driven separation discourse into the mainstream. Those concerns are real and deserve attention. But the path forward is pragmatic and economic. It lies in restoring confidence that governments are aligned and committed to rebuilding the conditions for shared prosperity.

Uncertainty carries a cost, and Alberta has been experiencing its effects for years. Today, a new layer of uncertainty is emerging, reinforcing the need for clarity. Alberta can move past disruption and back to growth. The path to restoring confidence is within reach. The sooner that shift happens, the stronger the outlook will be, not just for Alberta, but for the Canadian economy.

Shauna Feth is president and chief executive officer of the Alberta Chambers of Commerce.